Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick: People, Probabilities, and Big Moves to Beat the Odds

by Chris Bradley, Martin Hirt, and Sven Smit

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The McKinsey authors draw on a database of 2,400 large companies over ten years to show that corporate strategy is dominated by a power curve of economic profit, and that moving up it requires five big moves rather than incremental planning. Bradley, Hirt, and Smit diagnose the social side of strategy rooms, where political dynamics and behavioural biases produce hockey-stick forecasts divorced from base rates.

Published:: 2018
Pages:: 272

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In the Conversation

In this collection, Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick: People, Probabilities, and Big Moves to Beat the Odds references 3 other books.

It draws on Thinking, Fast and Slow, Good to Great and Built to Last.

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What This Book Draws On

The books Smit references and why each one mattered to the argument.

Bradley, Hirt, and Smit explicitly invoke Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow on the inside view, base rates, and loss aversion to explain why strategy rooms produce biased forecasts

References

Thinking, Fast and Slow

by Daniel Kahneman

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Critiques Collins's Good to Great research method for selecting on the dependent variable and lacking testable hypotheses, positioning their empirical power-curve approach as a corrective

References

Good to Great

by Jim Collins

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Similarly critiques Built to Last for inferring success formulas from great companies without outside-view comparison, naming it alongside In Search of Excellence as strategy books needing empirical grounding

References

Built to Last

by Jim Collins

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Intellectual Lineage

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Builds on (2 layers deep)

Directly cites

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Good to Great

Built to Last

2 steps back

The Black Swan

Stumbling on Happiness

The Wisdom of Crowds

Sources of Power

Predictably Irrational

Nudge

Unexpected Connections

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