by Dan Gardner
Gardner turns Philip Tetlock's twenty-year study of expert forecasting into narrative non-fiction, showing that confident pundits (hedgehogs) are consistently wrong while equivocating foxes outperform. He catalogs the cognitive reasons we keep believing bad forecasts anyway, from hindsight bias to narrative coherence.
In this collection, Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better references 4 other books.
It draws on Thinking, Fast and Slow, The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness.
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The books Gardner references and why each one mattered to the argument.
Draws heavily on Kahneman and Tversky's research on overconfidence, hindsight bias, and the planning fallacy when diagnosing expert failure
Cites Taleb's The Black Swan throughout on the impossibility of predicting rare, high-impact events and the narrative fallacy
References Taleb's Fooled by Randomness on mistaking luck for skill among pundits and market forecasters
Uses Ariely's Predictably Irrational examples to explain why audiences keep consuming demonstrably wrong predictions
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Books from completely different categories that share citation overlap with this one. These are the reads you would not find by browsing a single shelf.
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The Signal and the Noise
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Pitch Anything
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Cathy O'Neil
Atomic Habits
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Books with the highest citation overlap within the same categories.
The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine
Michael Lewis
3 shared citations
The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor
Howard Marks
3 shared citations
Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side
Howard Marks
3 shared citations
Alchemy: The Dark Art and Curious Science of Creating Magic in Brands, Business, and Life
Rory Sutherland
3 shared citations
Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions
Gerd Gigerenzer
3 shared citationsTools of Titans
Tim Ferriss
2 shared citationsThis book and its direct connections. Hover a node to see its title, click to visit.
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