by Philip Tetlock
Tetlock shows forecasting accuracy depends less on intelligence than on cognitive style. The best forecasters are humble, numerate, and constantly update beliefs, foxes outperform hedgehog experts.
In this collection, Superforecasting references 2 other books and is cited by 2 other books.
It draws on Thinking, Fast and Slow and The Black Swan.
It’s picked up by The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution and How Minds Change: The Surprising Science of Belief, Opinion, and Persuasion.
Scroll down to read the exact passages where other authors reference this book and what they say about it.
The books Tetlock references and why each one mattered to the argument.
Tetlock builds directly on Kahneman's cognitive bias research, testing whether some people can actually overcome the biases Kahneman identified. The Wall Street Journal called it "the most important book on decision making since Thinking, Fast and Slow."
Tetlock engages with Taleb's Black Swan on unpredictability.
The exact passages where other authors bring up “Superforecasting” and what they take from it.
Zuckerman's portrait of Renaissance's probabilistic forecasting culture aligns closely with Tetlock's Superforecasting findings on what distinguishes reliable prediction from pundit noise
Cited in
The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolutionby Gregory Zuckerman
References Tetlock's Superforecasting on calibration and updating beliefs as a model for how good reasoners change their minds
How ideas flow through the citation network. Ancestors are books this title builds on; descendants are books that build on it.
Directly cites
Directly cited by
Books from completely different categories that share citation overlap with this one. These are the reads you would not find by browsing a single shelf.
Tools of Titans
Tim Ferriss
The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor
Howard Marks
Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side
Howard Marks
Atomic Habits
James Clear
Antifragile
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Hooked
Nir Eyal
Books with the highest citation overlap within the same categories.
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Daniel Kahneman
3 shared citationsTools of Titans
Tim Ferriss
2 shared citations
The Art of Thinking Clearly
Rolf Dobelli
2 shared citations
Think Again
Adam Grant
2 shared citations
The Signal and the Noise
Nate Silver
2 shared citationsThe Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor
Howard Marks
2 shared citationsThis book and its direct connections. Hover a node to see its title, click to visit.
Hover a node to highlight its connections. Click to open the book page. Node size reflects total citation links.
