Political psychologist and author
Philip Tetlock is a Canadian American political psychologist and the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania. His research on forecasting accuracy led to the bestselling book Superforecasting, which reveals why certain individuals consistently outperform experts at predicting future events.
by Philip Tetlock
Tetlock shows forecasting accuracy depends less on intelligence than on cognitive style. The best forecasters are humble, numerate, and constantly update beliefs, foxes outperform hedgehog experts.
The books Philip Tetlock references, cites, and recommends most frequently.
by Daniel Kahneman
Kahneman reveals that our minds run on two systems: fast intuition and slow deliberation. Most errors in judgement come from trusting System 1 when the situation demands System 2's careful analysis.
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Taleb argues that rare, unpredictable events drive history far more than gradual trends. Our models systematically underestimate extreme outcomes, with devastating consequences.
Who Philip draws from, and who draws from Philip — aggregated across every book in this collection. Counts show the number of citation links, not the depth of each one.